The Bdₜ Model (Bitcoin-To-Liquidity Market Model) – Beta 3.0

The Bdₜ Model is a long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin grounded in macro liquidity conditions, investor cycle behavior, and structural supply dynamics. It estimates a structural fair value trajectory by linking global capital allocation, real interest rates, and scarcity dynamics into a liquidity-driven demand proxy.

In Beta 3.0, the model incorporates a continuously trained Ridge regression layer on monthly ETF net flows to conditionally adapt and amplify volatility around structural fair value during periods of elevated liquidity variance. This adaptive layer is designed to reflect evolving institutional participation and its interaction with macro liquidity regimes, without changing the underlying structural fair value model.

Disclaimer: The Bdₜ Model is intended strictly for research and educational purposes. It is not financial advice, does not constitute investment recommendations, and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any asset.